Strong El Nino and winter

[idsnowghost]

I think everyone's fingers are crossed for a better winter than last season. So, what do the experts think?



Our local National Weather Service office explains what a strong El Nino could mean for winter in the local area: http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2015/09/what-will-el-nino-bring-this-winter.html

Some local statistics for El Nino and La Nina snowfall impacts: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/otx/climate/coop/enso/enso.php

September 2015 El Nino Update, including what might happen with El Nino vs 'the blob' that destroyed last winter:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2015-el-niño-update-and-qa

Cliff Mass also looks at El Nino vs 'the blob':
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/09/godzilla-el-nino-versus-blob-who-will.html

 

[raynord22]

I'm hoping for some new freak development that equals unreal amounts of snow.

 

[mooseknuckles]

Hoping the Farmers Almanac is correct. ...Annual Weather Summary: November 2015 to October 2016
Winter will be cooler and rainier than normal, with above-normal snowfall... (http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/15)

HOW MUCH SNOW?!...Another area of above-normal precipitation (thanks to incoming storms from the Pacific) will cover much of the Pacific Northwest." (http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2016-winter-forecast/)

 

[idsnowghost]

I'm just glad the blob is on it's way out! Even if it's a typical El Nino winter, I'll take 80% of average snowfall versus 40-50% like last season.

 

[idsnowghost]

Good signs for atleast October-December: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/09/drought-in-2016-for-washington-state.html

 

[teledance]

Already planning a trip south to enjoy the storm track of El Nino. Had enough rain on snow up here. Mtn. Collective pass is sounding really good, or yurt skiing out of Poky.

 

[idsnowghost]

The switch is about to be flipped:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-atmospheric-rain-switch-is-about-be.html

 

[Brandon]

Also some interesting facts here (although not super specific to our area, we can still extrapolate some positives): http://www.skimountaineer.com/CascadeSki/CascadeSnowENSO.html

It gives us some hope. Bring on winter!

 

[Randonick]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.44132458817295&lon=-115.74886322021484#.VjF6nKSlpDE

This gives me nothing to slide on, just a big smile and some hope for this year!

 

[Brandon]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.44132458817295&lon=-115.74886322021484#.VjF6nKSlpDE

This gives me nothing to slide on, just a big smile and some hope for this year!

Let's just hope that cliff is wrong about the "huge high pressure system" that's apparently on its way when the moisture moves out...

 

[idsnowghost]

The 10 day forecasted snow model looks pretty awesome! I would think someone gets turns locally here by this time next week? k.p0w and I found about 4-5" on top of Stevens Peak a few days ago.

Cliff Mass talking mostly about the snow on the west side: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/11/snow-pics.html?m=1

"The pattern that is setting up (see upper level map below) shows the jet stream slipping south of us and our region in cool northwesterly flow with an embedded trough. Snow lovers know this is a good pattern."

 

[idsnowghost]

El Nino snowfall comparison map for the Inland NW: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/otx/climate/coop/enso/ninaosnow/ninocoopsnowavgmap.php

Btw Bear Mountain snotel at 13" this morning!

 

[Brandon]

We're not quite there yet folks. 43 degrees at the parking lot of lookout pass at noon and 61 degrees in Kellogg! Lolo pass area looked wintery over the weekend though.

 

[idsnowghost]

Snow predicted everyday in the 7 day forecast! Nice line of storms headed our way!

 

[PowderPanda]

YaY!!!!